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Summary – March 05

LATAM
  • The BCB will publish its weekly economists’ survey at 1125GMT(0625ET). Last week, the 2024 GDP growth forecast was raised again to 1.75%, from 1.68%. Brazil February services and composite PMI data will also cross, while in Mexico the Banamex economists survey will be published.
  • Commodity-tied currencies are the poorest performing currencies in G10 following China's NPC detailing the GDP targets for this year - with broadening expectations of further China stimulus doing little to support risk appetite headed into NY hours. Focus in G10 for the remainder of Tuesday trade rests on the final February US PMIs as well as the final January durable goods orders data. The ISM services index then follows, where markets expect the headline to moderate to 53.0 from 53.4 previously.
  • Global News:
    • CHINA (MNI Beijing) - China has set its GDP target at “around 5%” for 2024 as expected, to help boost employment and prevent risks, said Premier Li Qiang in the Government Work Report delivered at the opening ceremony of the National People's Congress on Tuesday. China aims to add over 12 million new urban jobs. Additionally, China will issue CNY1 trillion of ultra-long special treasury bonds in 2024 and lower the deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3%, said Premier Li Qiang.
    • US - Federal Reserve officials and other bank regulators could roll out a new proposal this spring to ward off a repeat of 2023’s banking turmoil. One year after a series of bank runs threatened the financial system, government officials are preparing to unveil a regulatory response aimed at preventing future meltdowns. (NYT)
    • US - Donald Trump won the North Dakota Republican presidential caucuses on Monday, adding to his string of victories heading into Super Tuesday. The former president finished first in voting conducted at 12 caucus sites, ahead of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. The result puts Trump back on the winning track, which was briefly interrupted on Sunday when Haley notched her first victory of the campaign in the District of Columbia’s primary.
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