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Summary – May 01

LATAM
  • The Latam data calendar is light on Wednesday, with most markets closed for the Labour Day holiday. Peru April CPI inflation is scheduled for 1600BST, although Reuters earlier reported a figure which was well below the surveyed Bloomberg estimate.
  • Elsewhere, focus for the duration of the session rests on the ISM Manufacturing data for April, ahead of the Fed rate decision. While the policy rate is set to stay unchanged, markets remain cognisant of the risk of a change in language surrounding the characterisation of inflation - a notable hawkish risk as markets continue to price out the likelihood of Fed rate cuts across 2024.
  • Global News:
    • US (MNI) – Persistently high inflation readings to start the year have shaken the FOMC’s confidence in initiating rate cuts, but today’s meeting is too soon for them to reconsider their easing bias. Though Chair Powell could confirm that a June cut is a doubtful prospect unless major surprises emerge, he is likely to affirm that the FOMC currently sees a higher-for-longer policy as appropriate and sufficient to quell inflation.
    • US – The Senate voted Tuesday evening to approve legislation banning the import of enriched uranium from Russia, sending the measure to the White House which has said it supports efforts to block the Kremlin’s shipments of the reactor fuel. The Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, approved by unanimous consent, would bar US imports 90 days after enactment while allowing temporary waivers until January 2028.
    • CHINA (MNI Beijing) – The weak yen has driven offshore capital into the A-share market, although further support will require authorities to strengthen economic fundamentals and provide greater easing measures alongside the already revealed policies to encourage dividends and attract long-term funds, advisors and analysts told MNI.
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