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Summary of Analyst Views

BOE
  • Of the 21 analyst previews we have read, only three do not expect GBP100bln of QE to be announced this week. TD Securities look for GBP120bln, Heteronomics GBP75bln and Barclays GBP50bln. JP Morgan are the only institution to expect an increase in the pace of gilt purchases as a base case.
  • Most analysts had been looking for GBP100bln QE prior to Saturday's England lockdown announcement but some of those looking for smaller amounts or a delayed decision have revised their calls this week.
  • Growth forecasts are unanimously expected to be revised lower, with most expecting slightly lower inflation forecasts too. However, some analysts point to the forecasts being potentially less relevant as they will have been changed at the last minute to take into account the lockdown.
  • Forward guidance is generally expected to remain unchanged.
  • There is not much discussion (if any) expected on negative rates as the Bank's review remains ongoing. BofA and RBC continue to expect rate cuts in February.


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