Summary of Analyst Views

We have read through over 20 analyst previews ahead of tomorrow's MPC meeting.

• No analyst previews that we have read forecast rate cuts and only 4/21 see an extension to the stock of QE in their base case (HSBC, TD Securities, Citi and NatWest Markets – although look for a smaller topup later). Goldman Sachs and Pantheon no longer forecast QE increases.
• Most analysts expect a balanced statement noting the improved economic outlook, stimulus from the Budget and encouraging vaccine progress and expect this will be enough to stop the Bank pushing back too hard against the rise in yields.
• On the pace of purchases, the vast majority expect no changes to be announced now. NatWest Markets are the only institution to explicitly look for a slowdown in the pace of purchases, although BofA also see this is a possibility.
• A few analysts expect the MPC could note that if financial conditions tighten too much that the pace of purchases could be increased.