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Summer TTF Overvalued as Supply Fears Ease: WoodMac

NATURAL GAS

TTF is drifting down from earlier highs with bearish near term fundamentals driven by high storage, healthy supplies and low demand offsetting winter cold weather risks. The current two week weather forecast still shows little sign of an extended period of cold in Europe or Asia.

  • European summer gas prices appear overvalued and could fall 20% as supply concerns ease with high storage levels according to Massimo Di Odoardo at Wood Mackenzie via Montel.
  • EU underground storage would likely end winter at least 50% full assuming normal weather and without any substantial outage, Di Odoardo said.
  • “As the market realises there is still a lot of storage, there is no reason for summer prices to remain this high,” he said.
  • European natural gas storage was at 99.42% full on Nov 13 according to GIE data after small net withdrawals yesterday and compared to the five year average of 89.4%.
  • The Sum24-Win24 spread is holding relatively steady so far this month with today around -3.6€/MWh. The Dec23 - Q1 2024 spread has narrowed in the last week to about -1.5€/MWh while the Q1 2024 -Q1 2025 spread is just widening again slightly today to -2.8€/MWh.
    • TTF DEC 23 up 0.7% at 47.95€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 0.4% at 49.5€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 0.5% at 48.03€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 1% at 51.62€/MWh
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