November 20, 2023 11:45 GMT
Super Tuesday? Crucial Inflation Report And Fiscal Update Coming
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- With polls showing voter anger over high cost of living and the BOC’s 10 rate hikes, StatsCan reports Oct CPI Tuesday at 830am EST. Sept inflation was 3.8% and for 5.8% groceries, while mortgage costs jumped 30%. Economists see inflation slowing to 3.1% on cheaper gasoline while core rates remain elevated.
- Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s fiscal update comes after 4pm, which she’s said will focus on a housing and cost of living squeeze.
- Past updates spent much of windfall revenue from pandemic rebound, breaking last fiscal “anchor” of lowering debt as a % of GDP in the March budget.
- Liberals lean on NDP to pass confidence votes like fiscal plans and have been under pressure to introduce a public drug plan. But NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has suggested he won't force anything now.
- BOC Governor Macklem says spending across govts starting to add to inflation by running faster than economy’s 2% potential growth.
- March budget projected CAD40b deficit in FY that began April 1 or 1.4% of GDP. Since then new spending and weaker economy has investors predicting a CAD45 billion shortfall.
- Trudeau runs into more foreign policy friction, with Israel’s Netanyahu attacking him on Twitter after comments calling for “maximum restraint” in Gaza. This follows tension with China, India and a botched visit from Ukraine’s Zelensky earlier this year. Trudeau had a fleeting talk with President Xi at APEC meeting while Biden had a longer and warmer meeting.
- Recent headlines: If history is any indication, the Trudeau Liberals are doomed (Globe and Mail); Poll suggests widespread dissatisfaction with Trudeau government (Canadian Press).