Supply Chains No Longer Easing, But Far From Tight

[The below is taken from the MNI CPI Preview, the full report for which can be found here]

• The New York Fed's gauge for global supply chain pressures (GSCPI) most recently dipped to -0.15 but has averaged 0 in the past two months to suggest supply chain pressures are in line with their historical average.
• Whilst prone to revisions, the latest path shows pressures have become gradually less easy since May when they bottomed out 1.5 standard deviations below the historical norm, although are still significantly less tight than through 2020-22.
• Last month’s -0.56% M/M decline in core goods prices ex used vehicles was one of the sharpest single month declines in the last twenty five years and could well see less deflation in December.
• Helped by apparel prices falling -1.3% for their fastest decline since May’20, this core goods sub-section should be watched to see whether November weakness was down to heightened holiday discounting or perhaps more pervasive.