Supply Concerns Support 2023 Prices Before New LNG Import Capacity

The first cold spell of the winter in NW Europe has pushed TTF prices higher over the last month with concern for tight supplies.

• The below normal temperatures forecast for December are putting more pressure on prices this winter and throughout 2023. Despite the warm start to the winter, concern remains for a cold winter and the impact on storage levels by the end of the withdrawal seasonal. Current storage withdrawals are in line with expected seasonal normal levels and overall stocks are down to 91.56% as of Dec 3.
• The lack of pipeline gas supply from Russia is putting more pressure on LNG imports and supporting prices for Sum23 and Win23. The tight supplies and requirement to restock supplies over the summer is driving the lack of normal seasonality in the Sum23 / Win 23 spread with Sum 23 at a 1.8€/MWh premium.
• Moves in Sum 24 and beyond have been limited with hope that the planned increase in European LNG import capacity over the coming year will help with energy security.
  • TTF JAN 23 down -0.4% at 134.99€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 23 down -1.1% at 136.29€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 23 down -1.4% at 134.19€/MWh

Source: Bloomberg