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Surprise Moderation In U.Mich Inflation Expectations In August Prelim

US DATA
  • 1Y inflation: 3.3% (cons 3.5%) in Aug after last month’s surprising resilience with an increase to 3.4% in July contrary to then expectations of a further moderation. It’s back to June’s level for otherwise the lowest since Mar’21.
  • The press release notes that "Current reading remains above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic."
  • 5-10Y inflation: 2.9% (cons 3.0%) in Aug after 3.0% in June and a recent high of 3.1% in May, back at the low end of its 2.9-3.1% range having last been at 2.9% in March. For context, it saw a 2.2-2.6% range in the two years pre-pandemic - see charts.
  • Note though that this is the preliminary print and can be prone to revisions.

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