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Surprisingly Small July Trade Deficit Doesn’t Stop Trend Deterioration

CANADA DATA
  • The merchandise trade deficit came in much lower than expected in July at C$0.99B (cons C$3.53B) albeit after a larger than first thought C$4.92B (initial C$3.73B).
  • The trade balance still deteriorated on a three-month trend basis though as a C$1B surplus from April dropped out.
  • It leaves a deficit equivalent to -2% GDP having flipped notably from the 0.1% GDP three months prior, with the deterioration two-parts non-energy and one-part energy.
  • Add in a fairly steady services deficit a little under -1% GDP and the overall goods & services trade balance has widened to an estimated -2.9% GDP on the three-month rolling basis for its widest deficit since late 2020.

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