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Suspected Intervention Dominates Early Trade, But USD/JPY Up From Lows

FOREX

Outside of yen weakness, G10 moves have been reasonably well contained in the first part of Thursday trade. The BBDXY USD index sits around 1259.40 in recent dealings, not too far from lows for the week. US yields are off a little over 1bps, as the market digests Powell's message from Wednesday (higher for longer, but next move unlikely to a hike). Equity sentiment is positive via higher US futures.

  • A sharp yen rally was evident in NY/Asia Pac cross over, with USD/JPY falling from above 157.00 to 153.04. Since those lows we have generally tracked higher, albeit with a few further bouts of volatility.
  • Session highs rest 156.28, and we were last near 155.85, down around 0.80% in yen terms. Currency Chief Kanda again stated no comment around whether the authorities had intervened. Given Japan markets are closed tomorrow and Monday it may take until next week to ascertain potential intervention efforts based off BoJ accounts data.
  • The BoJ minutes from the March meeting came and went without impacting sentiment greatly. (see this link).
  • AUD/USD is up modestly, last near 0.6530, while NZD is down a touch, last around the 0.5925 region. The AUD/NZD cross has made fresh highs of 1.1028. We had NZ and Aust data earlier on building activity and trade, but sentiment wasn't shifted.
  • Looking ahead we have Swiss CPI first up, followed by final PMI revisions for the EU. In the US, Challenger job cuts, Q1 productivity/ULC, March final durable orders and jobless claims print. The ECB's Lane also speaks.

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