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SWEDEN: Further Riksbank Cuts Should Help Business Lending Growth Bottom Out

SWEDEN

The prospect of further Riksbank rate cuts through this year should help set a floor in business lending growth, which fell 2.5% Y/Y in July (vs -2.3% prior). Household lending meanwhile was 0.7% Y/Y, steady for the past 3 months.

  • Mortgage lending, which constitutes 83% of total household lending, was 0.8% Y/Y, while consumption loans (6% of total lending) fell to 2.0% Y/Y from 3.5% in June.
  • The average interest rate on new floating rate mortgages was 4.54% (vs 4.51% in June and 4.57% in July 2023). For 1-5-year fixed rate mortgages, the average interest rate was 3.40% (vs 3.64% in June and 4.14% in July 2023.
  • Further Riksbank easing should help these rates continue to fall in the coming months, providing an impulse to domestic demand as disposable income recovers.

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