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SWEDEN: Increase In Industrial Capacity Utilisation Won’t Stop Riksbank Cuts

SWEDEN

The increase in industrial capacity utilisation in Q2 will not stand in the way of a series of Riksbank cuts through the remainder of this year. Although industrial capacity utilisation rose for a second consecutive quarter in Q2, the Riksbank’s broader resource utilisation indicator fell deeper into negative territory, highlighting that the Swedish economy remains underutilised.

  • Q2 industrial capacity utilisation was estimated at 89.2% (vs 88.6% prior), thus remains above the 2000-2019 average of 88.4%.
  • The share of businesses citing production disruptions as the reason for less-than full utilisation rose to 25.5%, from 21.6% last quarter. 
  • Meanwhile, the share of firms citing insufficient demand fell to 56.7% (vs 59.8% prior). 
  • However, the Riksbank’s resource utilisation indicator fell to -0.32 in Q2 (where 0 is the long-term average, and illustrative of “cyclical balance”) from -0.24 in Q1. This was the fourth consecutive quarter of decline.
  • This indicator was referenced in the latest Monetary Policy Update, presented alongside the decision to cut rates by 25bps to 3.50% today.

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