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SWITZERLAND: KOF Downwardly Revises 2025/26 Inflation Expectations By 0.3pp

SWITZERLAND
SwitzerlandCEEMEABulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

In their autumn projections, Swiss think tank KOF has downwardly revised their inflation projections, to +1.2% Y/Y in 2024 (vs 1.3% summer projection), and to +0.7% in 2025/26 (vs 1.0%).

  • The revision equals the downside miss of average Q3 inflation to date vs the current SNB inflation projection (1.2% Jul/Aug average vs 1.5% f'cast), and brings the forecast in in line with the Swiss' governments expectations for 2025.
  • A revision of the SNB's conditional inflation forecast tomorrow along those lines should probably be the base case considering market expectations.
  • Sellside analysts appear to be lagging a bit behind in revisions - the median estimate for 2024 headline CPI collated by MNI stands 1.25% (downwardly revised by 0.05pp during the last three months); for 2025, it stands at 1.10% (-0.1pp revision).
  • Elsewhere, KOF see CHF appreciation risk among geopolitical uncertainty. Sluggish international trends (in particular, the ongoing slump in Germany) leads them to downwardly revise their growth forecasts: now standing at +1.1% Y/Y for 2024 (vs 1.2% Summer f'cast), +1.6% for 2025 (vs +1.8%) and +1.7% for 2026 (new).
  • In line with most analysts, KOF also expect a 25bp SNB policy rate cut in the meeting tomorrow - see our full preview here: https://mni.marketnews.com/4edrH25
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In their autumn projections, Swiss think tank KOF has downwardly revised their inflation projections, to +1.2% Y/Y in 2024 (vs 1.3% summer projection), and to +0.7% in 2025/26 (vs 1.0%).

  • The revision equals the downside miss of average Q3 inflation to date vs the current SNB inflation projection (1.2% Jul/Aug average vs 1.5% f'cast), and brings the forecast in in line with the Swiss' governments expectations for 2025.
  • A revision of the SNB's conditional inflation forecast tomorrow along those lines should probably be the base case considering market expectations.
  • Sellside analysts appear to be lagging a bit behind in revisions - the median estimate for 2024 headline CPI collated by MNI stands 1.25% (downwardly revised by 0.05pp during the last three months); for 2025, it stands at 1.10% (-0.1pp revision).
  • Elsewhere, KOF see CHF appreciation risk among geopolitical uncertainty. Sluggish international trends (in particular, the ongoing slump in Germany) leads them to downwardly revise their growth forecasts: now standing at +1.1% Y/Y for 2024 (vs 1.2% Summer f'cast), +1.6% for 2025 (vs +1.8%) and +1.7% for 2026 (new).
  • In line with most analysts, KOF also expect a 25bp SNB policy rate cut in the meeting tomorrow - see our full preview here: https://mni.marketnews.com/4edrH25