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Sydbank: Positive Results But Spreads Already Performed Well

FINANCIALS

Sydbank 1Q24 results (SYDBDC; A3 pos) are ahead of consensus with good credit stats and some upgraded guidance language from mgmt. This is positive for peers (Danske, Jyske and Nykredit) but Sydbank spreads have already been the star performer amongst the Danes (-78bp YTD, €IG peers -39bp) and there’s perhaps insufficient here to drive further tightening.


  • Key credit stats: CET1 is 10bp ahead of expectations (at 17.4%) and loan losses were a nominal DKK8m (barely 1bp of loans) and mgmt is maintaining a DKK500m buffer provision. Non-performers are flat on Dec-23 (at 1.5% of loans). Solid across the board, we feel.
  • Revenues are 3% ahead of consensus (+13% y/y with NII +16%), costs and loan losses are inline meaning net income is 11% ahead of consensus. Net income is also 29.7% of the top end of FY24 guidance, already. Retail loan growth is roughly zero, corporate +4%.
  • Outlook: mgmt has upgraded its language about the Danish economy (to “moderate growth” from “low growth”) but has not chosen to upgrade FY24 net profit guidance, which is marginally below consensus (DKK2.5-2.9bn, cons: DKK2.92bn).

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