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TD: Below-Consensus On Core

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

TD sees a below-consensus reading of +0.2% M/M for core August CPI (but are in-line on headline with +0.4%).

  • On sub-components, they see rents as probably haven risen "solidly again", but on the downside they see a decline in used vehicle prices and slowing in travel-related items.
  • That said, "we don't expect recent large increases in airfares and lodging rates to be reversed, as levels have just been getting back to where they were before the pandemic, but rapid rates of increase are unlikely to be sustained."
  • On rents, while the re-acceleration is likely to be sustained, the degree of strength suggested by some private sector "is unlikely to be reflected in the CPI, however; the same data showed much more weakening than the CPI in 2020".
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