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TD: Delta Likely Held Down Travel-Related Prices To Some Extent

DATA REACT

TD thinks the Aug CPI miss will " likely encourage Fed officials to keep viewing recent strength as "largely transitory", though monthly CPI data can be volatile.

  • Travel-related prices "were likely held down by fallout from the Delta wave to some extent".
  • They saw the stronger outturn for rents vs OER as "at odds with the pattern in recent months" (OER had been running stronger consistent with stronger demand "for the types of homes that are typically owned", such as large homes vs small apartments). The private sector data tracking rents shows more strengthening than the CPI rents data, "but the same data showed more weakening in 2020".
  • TD thinks the surge in used vehicle prices has run its course and is set to decline much more.
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