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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- With the Federal Government's Budget released in around 30 minutes including its updated Debt Management Strategy, TD look for a sizeable shift higher in FY 24/25 projected issuance in both the short and long vs the updated estimates for FY 23/24.
- They see bond issuance at C$238.5bn for FY 24/25 after last year’s estimated C$204bn, with the largest increases in 5s (+C$13bn), 10s (+C$13bn) and 2s (+$C10bn).
- However, “We still think it will be enough supply to weigh on the market over time (strong pension buying not withstanding), but the big picture is that a number between $230 and $250bn really represents continuing with the status quo rather than a jarring market event”
- “We look for the government to fund the deficit, CMB purchases ($30bn), maturing bonds ($156bn), and cash management buybacks ($7bn) using nominal GoC auctions”.
- The bill/bond split is another “big wildcard” for bond supply. They assume the government “seeks to maintain the bill stock at $268bn next year, but with the BoC widely expected to ease rates mid-year and Bankers Acceptances set to disappear on July 1 we certainly see a risk that the government shifts more of its borrowing from bonds and into T-bills.”
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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