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TD: Potentially Less Hawkish Dot Plot Post NFPs

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Payrolls well below expectations with only relatively modest revisions and weaker than expected hourly earnings contrasted with extremely strong household survey data.
  • The unemployment rate fell 0.4pt to 4.2%, even with a 0.2pt rise in the participation rate. The household survey employment series surged by 1,136k vs 210k for payrolls.
  • The payrolls data are much less volatile from month to month than the household survey data, so the 210k reading sets the tone. Even the payrolls data can be volatile, however.
  • TD think the Fed is likely to keep to accelerating taper this month, but "the data could help make officials a bit less hawkish with their dot plot projections". "The rise in participation and the slowing in earnings will help the case that the labor market is still a long way from "maximum employment"."
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