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TD Securities on Canada Jobs and BOC: More Hawkishness In Store

CANADA
  • November's jobs report will be impossible for the Bank of Canada to ignore.
  • Throughout the pandemic, the Bank emphasized it would keep the overnight rate low until the labour market recovery was complete.
  • We’re nearly there – the unemployment rate is almost back to where it was in February 2020. Given tighter labour market conditions, stronger price pressures, and hot housing market activity, TD can't discount the possibility the Bank will hike rates as early as January.
  • Uncertainty with respect to the new Omicron variant is elevated, but barring any significant negative developments, there could be more hawkishness in store in next week's Bank of Canada statement.
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