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TD Securities view ahead of this week's MPC meeting

BOE
  • TD Securities "think the focus of the August meeting will be on the BoE's macro forecasts…the wildcard is the more hawkish outlook of the chief economist, and how much sway he ultimately has over the forecasts in the MPR." TD's "base case is for the forecasts to come in closer to those of institutions like NIESR and the OBR, leaving the door open to further QE in the autumn."
  • TD Securities note that Haldane has been "talking about a V-shaped recovery as recently as last week" while "most of the MPC are more likely to be look at something closer to a U or L". With Haldane heading up the internal Bank team that produce the initial set of forecasts, TD sees "a substantial risk (we think ~30%) of a hawkish surprise". However, TD also notes that "if the MPC just cannot come to an agreement over the forecasts…we could see another MPR where the BoE repeats the "illustrative scenario" route rather than publishing full forecasts."
  • QE pace: "This should also include the reinvestments for £6.1 bn (nominal) holdings of the UKT Sep 20…From a supply side, the DMO issuance in the coming months should be close to £35bn per month. We expect the BoE to at least continue to buy half of the incoming supply."
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