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TDS Recommend Long USD/JPY Position

JPY
  • TD Securities enter a long USDJPY position targeting a move to 120, with a stop-loss at 115.30.
  • They write that USDJPY is a better expression of US-centric risks, especially the Fed.
  • TDS add that the pair has nowhere to go but up, especially now that the 116.40 triple top has been breached (which should now be key support).
  • Ahead of next week's Fed, they see a risk that the dot-plot will surprise markets given that hikes are well priced for 2022, but less so in 2023. They think this will help turn USDJPY's correlation with FFZ2/Z3 spread.
  • They conclude that all these signals coincide with a time when seasonal dynamics lean toward JPY weakness also.
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