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Tech Focus: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USD TRY Bearish Extension

EMERGING MARKETS
  • Recent gains in EURHUF are still considered a correction. The technical condition remains bearish and the downtrend that started Dec 31 is intact. The recent breach of 356.32, Jan 25 low opens 353.15 next, a major support and Dec 14 low.
    • Key resistance remains 361.14, Jan 27 high where a break is required to alter the picture.
  • EURPLN is marginally weaker. The pair last week failed to deliver a clear break of support at 4.4731, Feb 3 low. A breach of 4.5074/89, the 50-day EMA and Feb 12 high would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Key resistance is 4.5618, Jan 28 high. The recent low has been 4.4709, Feb 10. A break would resume bearish pressure.
  • USDZAR maintains a weaker tone. The pair has cleared 14.5037, Dec 25 low and the bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend that started in Apr 2020 and paves the way for a move towards 14.0633, 1.236 projection of the Apr - Jun - Aug 2020 price swing
    • Resistance is at 14.7667, Jan 21 low.
  • USDTRY bearish conditions continue to dominate and the downtrend is extending once again today.
    • The pair has cleared 7.00 to maintain the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
    • This has opened 6.8568, the 50.0% retracement of the Nov 2018 - Nov 2020 uptrend.
    • The 20-day EMA at 7.1836 marks a firm resistance.
  • USDRUB has breached the base of the bull channel drawn off the Dec 17 low. Attention is on 72.6566, the Dec 17 low. Resistance has been defined at 74.4674, the Feb 12 high.
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