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Terminal ECB Pricing Moderates As Lane Eyes Peak Inflation

STIR

Terminal ECB rate pricing ticked a couple of basis points lower, implying 2.81% by mid-2023 - a cumulative 140bp from current levels.

  • Despite stronger-than-expected German factory orders data, which suggested a milder economic downturn, implied OIS rates were anchored. Helping was ECB's Lane pointing out a likely peak in eurozone inflation, and that "we do expect that more rate increases will be necessary, but a lot has been done already".
  • Pricing for next week's ECB decision has remained within a 53-56bp range since the start of the month, implying 76-88% probability of a 50bp hike (vs 75bp).
  • There were no BoE speakers Tuesday and no consequential UK data. BoE December hike pricing remained in the 54-56bp range for a third consecutive session; terminal rates are still seen in Aug / Sep 2023 at 4.62-4.63% (unch).
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