Free Trial

Terminal Rate Expectations Soften In $-Bloc & Easing Expectations Increase

STIR

Market expectations for terminal interest rates in the $-bloc have softened over the past two weeks.

  • Terminal rate expectations and the cumulative tightening currently stand at: 5.33%, 0bps (FOMC); 5.02%, +2bps (BOC); 4.43%, +11bps (RBA); and 5.54%, +4bps (RBNZ).
  • Easing expectations have also gathered momentum outside of Australia, with June’24 easing at 33bps, 30bps and 23bps in the US, Canada and NZ respectively. By contrast, Australia has 5bps of easing priced by Jun'24.

Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR

Keep reading...Show less
83 words

To read the full story

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Market expectations for terminal interest rates in the $-bloc have softened over the past two weeks.

  • Terminal rate expectations and the cumulative tightening currently stand at: 5.33%, 0bps (FOMC); 5.02%, +2bps (BOC); 4.43%, +11bps (RBA); and 5.54%, +4bps (RBNZ).
  • Easing expectations have also gathered momentum outside of Australia, with June’24 easing at 33bps, 30bps and 23bps in the US, Canada and NZ respectively. By contrast, Australia has 5bps of easing priced by Jun'24.

Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR

Keep reading...Show less