Free Trial

Terminal Rate Seen Above 4.2% In March

FED

Expectations for the Fed's terminal rate have jumped since the August CPI release: now priced around 4.21% in March 2023, up 19bp on the day.

  • Pricing for next week suggests 20% chance of a 100bp raise, with 75bp now fully priced.
  • We will see where these end up later today, usually takes 30-60 minutes before we settle down post-CPI.
  • But it doesn't look like an unjustified move, given strength across core goods and services, as well as new cycle highs for OER suggesting inflation may be stickier than previously expected.



Source: BBG, MNI

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.