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IDR: Testing Above 16300, IDR Not Following Typical Jan Gains, BI On Hold Later

IDR
EM BulletBulletIndonesiaAPACEmerging Market News

USD/IDR got to fresh highs of 16318 in earlier dealings. These were levels last seen late July/early August 2024. We have settled somewhat since, last back in the 16295/00 region, still close to 0.20% weaker in IDR terms for the session. A clean break above 16300 would likely see the 16400 level targeted, last seen in late June last year. The 20-day EMA is back near 16145 in terms of downside support. 

  • We haven't seen any fresh rhetoric from the Indonesian authorities post this move, but it may be that intervention is happening in the background, given earlier rhetoric from BI this week (post the USD surge after the NFP beat).
  • So far this January the IDR is not following the typically strong seasonal gains we see. The currency is off 1.20% so far this month. It has risen in 7 out of 8 last January's.
  • Data a short while ago showed softer than expected export growth (4.78%y/y, against a 7.38% forecast), while imports rose 11.07y/y, against a 4.7% forecast. This meant the trade surplus was $2240mn, narrowed than the $3696mn expected.  The trade surplus is largely tracking a sideways trend.
  • We have the BI decision coming up later, where no change is expected, a point reinforced by today's elevated USD/IDR levels. 
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USD/IDR got to fresh highs of 16318 in earlier dealings. These were levels last seen late July/early August 2024. We have settled somewhat since, last back in the 16295/00 region, still close to 0.20% weaker in IDR terms for the session. A clean break above 16300 would likely see the 16400 level targeted, last seen in late June last year. The 20-day EMA is back near 16145 in terms of downside support. 

  • We haven't seen any fresh rhetoric from the Indonesian authorities post this move, but it may be that intervention is happening in the background, given earlier rhetoric from BI this week (post the USD surge after the NFP beat).
  • So far this January the IDR is not following the typically strong seasonal gains we see. The currency is off 1.20% so far this month. It has risen in 7 out of 8 last January's.
  • Data a short while ago showed softer than expected export growth (4.78%y/y, against a 7.38% forecast), while imports rose 11.07y/y, against a 4.7% forecast. This meant the trade surplus was $2240mn, narrowed than the $3696mn expected.  The trade surplus is largely tracking a sideways trend.
  • We have the BI decision coming up later, where no change is expected, a point reinforced by today's elevated USD/IDR levels.