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THAILAND: People's Party Seen On Defensive But PM Paetongtarn Also Faces Risks

THAILAND
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeAPACPolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegionThailand

The Bangkok Post published an opinion piece over the weekend, pointing to the recent series of setback for the main opposition People's Party (PP), which succeeded the dissolved Move Forward Party (MFP). The piece suggests that several defeats in recent national and regional by-elections testify to the party's struggle to regain momentum, after it failed to convert its 2023 electoral victory into a power grab, facing stiff resistance from institutions controlled by the country's military-royalist establishment.

  • In addition, it has been flagged that the latest National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) poll for the first time showed that Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's approval rating is above that of Pita Limjaroenrat, having soared ahead of the launch of her Pheu Thai Party's (PTP's) flagship cash handout programme.
  • The next general election will be held with slightly different rules in play, with the Senate now stripped off its role in appointing the Prime Minister. Last year, it was the upper house that blocked then-MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat's PM bid. However, the Senate remains a veto player in the charter amendment process, and still appoints some key state officials.
  • Political analyst Ken Mathis Lohatepanont offered a contrary opinion, writing on X that if we "think how many things have changed in Thai politics in the past year," we "really don't  know anything about an election that might be as far away as 2027," adding that "speculating on the likelihood of a single-party government right now is a futile exercise."
  • Meanwhile, the Bangkok Post wrote in a separate piece that Paetongtarn's government "remains vulnerable on several fronts, including allegations of legal favouritism and special treatment for Thaksin [Shinawatra[ during his incarceration." She continues to face a growing number of legal complaints and petitions, with little clarity over potential risks they might carry.
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The Bangkok Post published an opinion piece over the weekend, pointing to the recent series of setback for the main opposition People's Party (PP), which succeeded the dissolved Move Forward Party (MFP). The piece suggests that several defeats in recent national and regional by-elections testify to the party's struggle to regain momentum, after it failed to convert its 2023 electoral victory into a power grab, facing stiff resistance from institutions controlled by the country's military-royalist establishment.

  • In addition, it has been flagged that the latest National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) poll for the first time showed that Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's approval rating is above that of Pita Limjaroenrat, having soared ahead of the launch of her Pheu Thai Party's (PTP's) flagship cash handout programme.
  • The next general election will be held with slightly different rules in play, with the Senate now stripped off its role in appointing the Prime Minister. Last year, it was the upper house that blocked then-MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat's PM bid. However, the Senate remains a veto player in the charter amendment process, and still appoints some key state officials.
  • Political analyst Ken Mathis Lohatepanont offered a contrary opinion, writing on X that if we "think how many things have changed in Thai politics in the past year," we "really don't  know anything about an election that might be as far away as 2027," adding that "speculating on the likelihood of a single-party government right now is a futile exercise."
  • Meanwhile, the Bangkok Post wrote in a separate piece that Paetongtarn's government "remains vulnerable on several fronts, including allegations of legal favouritism and special treatment for Thaksin [Shinawatra[ during his incarceration." She continues to face a growing number of legal complaints and petitions, with little clarity over potential risks they might carry.