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SONIA: The front end of the Sonia curve is steeper in early Thursday morning
trading compared to Wednesday's close as RICS house price balance rises to 6
from 1 but with significant variances. Main event today will be BOE monetary
policy decision and MPC minutes. Majority of banks see a 7-2 vote for unchanged
rates, however following sharp rise in CPI in August, risk is seen for a 6-3
vote and/or a more hawkish statement. MNI PINCH now see markets pricing a 83%
chance of a 25bp rate hike in Feb 2018 and following levels in BoE forward dated
- Sep-17 0.3bp higher at 0.227%
- Nov-17 0.6bp higher at 0.316%
- Dec-17 1.2bp higher at 0.338%
- Feb-18 1.0bp higher at 0.422%
- Mar-18 0.6bp higher at 0.416%
- May-18 0.1bp higher at 0.463%
- Jun-18 0.3bp higher at 0.466%
- Aug-18 0.8bp higher at 0.509%