The median estimate for nonfarm.....>

US DATA PREVIEW: The median estimate for nonfarm payrolls stands at +315k, with

2/3 of analysts expecting above +300k and 1/3 expecting a gain in the 200ks. If

analysts are correct at +315k and there are no revisions to prev months, Sept

and Oct avg would be +141k, lower than the Sept/Oct avg for the past 6 years.

The unemployment rate is expected to stay at the 16-year low of 4.2%. Analysts

expect avg hourly earnings to retreat to +0.2% after the hurricane-driven +0.5%

in Sept. Avg work week is expected to be unchanged at 34.4. With such a large

range, payrolls are certain to surprise some market participants, but will

likely be discounted due to transitory underlying causes. However, analysts

remain focused on avg hourly earnings as continued strength could help push

through a Dec rate hike, while weakness would be positive for fixed income and

negative for the dollar.