Third GOP Presidential Debate Does Little To Change Primary Equation

The third Republican presidential primary debate yesterday provided further evidence that former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is the strongest ‘second place’ GOP candidate but did little to suggest that former President Donald Trump’s huge lead can be bridged.

• The main takeaway from the debate is the GOP primary equation remains the same. It is difficult to see anyone challenging Trump for the nomination without an judicial intervention precluding him from running.
• Betting markets remain unchanged. According to Smarkets, former President Trump has an implied probability of 77% of winning the GOP nomination.
• During the debate, Haley received criticism for her foreign policy focus, which appears out-of-step with much of the Republican voter base.
• Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) said on Ukraine: “We need to bring this war to an end. We need the Europeans to step up and do their fair share...”
• Haley said: “No, I don’t think we should give [Kyiv] cash. I think we should give them the equipment, the ammunition to win. And I’ll tell you if Biden had done it when they first asked for it, this war would be over.”
• DeSantis also made a call to “rein in” the Federal Reserve: “The Fed should focus on stable prices,” he said. “They are not an economic central planner for the American people.”