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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Senator Joe Manchin's (D-WV) decision not to run for re-election, and instead sound out the prospect of a presidential bid on a third party ticket, has raised concerns amongst Democrats that a third party candidate could boost former President Donald Trump in crucial swing states.
- In the aftermath of Manchin's decision not to run for re-election, betting markets saw a 4% bump in Trump's implied probability of winning the 2024 election, likely pricing in a third party bid from Manchin.
- The Wall Street Journal notes: "Recent history gives Biden a reason to fear third parties: In 2016, they drew an unusually large share of votes in swing states that Hillary Clinton unexpectedly lost... Voters that year held a largely negative view of both Trump and Clinton, the Democratic nominee. An unusually large share rejected both candidates and opted for third parties."
- That same dynamic is likely to be present again in 2024 with both Trump and Biden subject to substantial voter blocs reporting they are unlikely to vote for either candidate. White House strategists believe that the underlying political environment leans Democrat, compelling Democrat-leaning voters to abandon opposition when faced with Trump on the ballot.
- Republicans, however, believe that Trump's core base will be more likely to turnout in sufficient numbers, citing apathy with the Biden administration's economic agenda and concerns over Biden's age and competence.
Figure 1: Biden vs Trump with Third Party Candidates on Ballot
Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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