TMX Exports May Be Limited by Infrastructure Constraints

Logistical constraints are set to limit exports from Canada’s soon to start TMX pipeline according to analysts and shipbrokers.

• Trans Mountain says it has capacity to load 34 Aframax ships a month, but ship brokers and analysts have pegged the likely number at less than 20 according to Reuters.
• "Theoretically they can handle the volumes, but auxiliary or secondary services are not ready for huge volumes," Vortexa said.
• BRS the shipbroker forecasts only 15-17 afras will leave the Westbridge dock per month, still much higher than the recent years of 1-2 a month.
• Factors like daytime only transits for Aframaxes in the nearby channel limit capacity and vessels require tugboats and pilots to escort them, both of which are limited.
• About 27 Aframax vessels that could carry crude oil were waiting along the Pacific Coast for charters to pick up TMX cargo, according to Vortexa, with at least 14 of them being empty.
• The Aframax oversupply has weighed on freight rates in the region according to Argus.