Today's payroll report brings with it the...>

US DATA: Today's payroll report brings with it the annual benchmark revisions to

the payroll report from the business employment dynamic and seasonal adjustment

changes. Plus, there will be the "population control" to the separate household

survey.

- The preliminary estimate that was released in September suggested that the

level of Mar 2017 payrolls would increase by 95k. This suggests minor

adjustments to payrolls in the Apr-16 to Mar-17 period. Morgan Stanley write

"the benchmark should be within the normal range of revision and is unlikely to

materially alter the path of job growth as we know it."

- Regarding the household survey, Morgan Stanley notes that there are no

backward revisions, so there is always a break between December and January.

Therefore "be careful of any outsized-looking monthly changes in the labor force

or household survey measure of employment in news headlines".

- Average hourly earnings are also very important and MS sees 0.3%M/M "upward

pressure from minimum wage increases as tax-related wage increase and downward

reversal of December's calendar bias will battle each other for first place."