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Touched $1.2150. Awaits US Market Return For Reaction.

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Recovery off Friday's low of $1.2082 extended Monday to $1.2145, holding shy of the recent Feb11 high of $1.2149 before rate settled around $1.2130 through a N. American holiday thinned session.
  • Reflation trade continues to place pressure on the USD in thin conditions, major centres in Asia remain shut for the Lunar New Year, with Shrove Tuesday celebrations also of note for EM.
  • EUR/USD picked up fresh demand in Asia which pushed rate up to $1.2150 where it met decent resistance before it eased back to the $1.2130/35 area ahead of Europe.
  • Support $1.2135/30 ahead of $1.2120 then $1.2108/1.2098 (61.8%-76.4% $1.2082-1.2150) ahead of $1.2082. Resistance remains at $1.2150, with technical levels close behind at $1.2151/54/56/58 (50% 1.2349-1.1952/55-dma/Jan29 high/50-dma). Break of $1.2160 to expose $1.2190/1.2100.
  • Germany ZEW and EZ GDP and Employment the focus at 1000GMT.
  • US markets return from their long weekend with interest how they will react to the softer USD. US Empire Mfg data at 1330GMT.
  • Fiscal stimulus headlines along with Fed speak remain key drivers. Fed speakers today include Bowman(no known bias) 1610GMT, George(non-voter hawk) 1730GMT, Kaplan(non-voter hawk) 1800GMT and Daly(dove) 2000GMT.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD remains in a consolidation mode and is still trading at recent highs. A bullish theme remains intact. The Feb 5 price pattern, a bullish engulfing reversal, is still in play reinforcing current conditions. Furthermore, last week's move above both the 50- and 20-day EMAs is positive. The focus is on $1.2156 next, Jan 29 high On the downside, sub $1.1952 levels would resume recent bearish pressure.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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