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Trade balance narrows on weaker details

AUSTRALIA DATA

The July trade balance narrowed more than expected to A$8733 after A$17131 in June. The softer outcome was due to not only a sharper-than-expected fall in exports of 9.9% but also a significantly larger rise in imports of 5.2% on the month.

  • Imports posted their third consecutive rise and now stand 40.8% higher than a year ago (June +34.3%). Despite the July rise being driven by overseas travel, goods imports rose 4.8% m/m and across the three major categories, suggesting that domestic demand growth has remained robust and that there could also be some inventory build in Q3 after the run down in Q2.
  • Weakness in coal and metal exports was behind the fall in the total. This is a nominal series and coking coal and metals prices were down on average in July. Exports of travel services rose 8.2% m/m. Export growth to China also weakened for the fifth consecutive month falling by 24% y/y, suggesting that reduced demand there is impacting the Australian economy.
Australia: Trade in goods & services y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News, ABS, Refinitiv Eikon Datastream

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