Trade Data Eyed

Offshore yuan is essentially flat on the session, USD/CNH is treading water ahead of trade data later today. The rate last changes hands at 6.4512, up 5 pips on the session. Resistance is seen at the 100-DMA at 6.4551, above here is a 50.0% retracement level at 6.4700. Support is seen at a 38.2% retracement level 6.4423.

• Morgan Stanley expects a slowdown in exports: "We expect nominal exports to edge down to 17% YoY in August (vs. 19.3% in July), with its 2Y CAGR coming in at 13% (vs. 12.9% in July). Early indicators, such as Korea exports (10% 2Y CAGR in Aug vs. 9.7% in July) and throughput at major Chinese ports (4.1% 2Y CAGR MTD vs. 1.2% in July), suggest that export momentum likely held up. Meanwhile, import growth likely edged down to 26%, while its 2Y CAGR softened to 11.3% (vs. 12.8% in July), in line with weakening domestic demand. Consequently, the trade surplus likely came in at US$51bn (vs. US$56.5bn in July)."