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FI Support Evaporates Amid Late Month End Selling


Remains Vulnerable


Late Risk Off Sees USDCAD Eye Cycle Highs


BLOCK, Late Puts

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US TSYS/30Y: *** Traders are cautious into 1pm ET US$12B 30Y reopening though it
may be enough price concession is in to draw a mild bid. Traders eyed US demand,
moderate Asian (Japanese & Chinese) bid, perhaps European bargain-hunting (US
30Y WI 2.7876% is good bargain vs. Austria EUR 100-year bond at 2.11%.) Traders
noted 30Y traded well on curve amid flattening; 5/30Y -1.1 bps flatter on day. 
- SMRA's John Canavan: 30Y auction raises all new cash as did 10Y. 
- Nomura's George Goncalves, Stanley Sun, Penglu Zhao: "persistent low vol
environment may continue to favor flatteners and help long-end takedown. An
extension on debt ceiling suspension may further dampen the likelihood of
Treasury's ultra-long bd issuance this year, which will be duration-friendly."
They say long-end relative valuation on swap looks rich relative to positioning,
which may reduce some demand interest;" "risk on" mood "and declining foreign
interest could also be headwinds for the auction." 
- HISTORY: Strong Aug. 30Y auction: 2.818% rate, 2.750% coupon, and a 2.32
bid/cover; solid 66.8% indirects, 5.4% directs, leaving only small 27.82% for
primary dealers.

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