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Treasury Futures Edge Higher As Volumes Surge, Weekly Claims Later

US TSYS
  • US treasury futures volume has surged today, initially volumes picked up after what looked to be stopped being triggered, ~160k TY contracts have traded as we head into the Asia break over double the recent volume for this time of day, the contract trades near intraday highs at 109-30+ up (+ 07+), TU briefly traded above overnight highs, tapping 101.29.75 but has been met with sellers and now trade back at 101-29 up ( +01.125)
  • The treasury curve has flattened today with yields 1-3bps lower, the 2Y yield -1.3bps at 4.711%, 10Y -2.1bps to 4.319%, while the 2y10y -0.866 at -39.447
  • Looking across local rates markets: NZGBs yields are 8-10bps lower, ACGBs yields are 11-12bps lower, JGBs are 0.5bp - 4bps lower, while in the EM space INDON yields are 8-15bps lower and PHILIP yields are 5-12bps lower
  • Short end rate cut pricing now projects two 25bp rate cuts by year end (Sep & Dec)
  • Looking Ahead: Weekly Claims, Build Permits and more Fed Speak

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