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Treasury Secretary Ceron Warns On Fiscal Risks

BRAZIL
  • In an interview with Valor Economico, Treasury Secretary Ceron warned that the three branches of government need to understand the importance of the fiscal balance, highlighting the risks to the exchange rate and inflation if there are setbacks to the fiscal agenda in congress. Concerns are rising that lower house Speaker Lira may prove obstructive to the economic agenda due to an ongoing spat with the government.
  • Folha de S.Paulo also report that the government needs BRL 50bn ($9.5bn) in extra revenue to meet its zero primary deficit target in 2025. This figure may be even higher if congress obstructs the government on payroll tax relief and the Perse programme.
  • Fiscal concerns have weighed significantly on local assets this week, with swap rates more than 50bp higher, despite some respite today. USDBRL is also 0.9% lower at the time of writing, although a bullish theme remains intact. The strong impulsive nature of the latest rally signals scope for a climb towards 5.3330, 76.4% of the Nov 11 ‘23 - Jul 28 ‘23 bear leg. Support to watch lies at 5.0713, the 20-day EMA.
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