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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA DATA
December new jobs came in well below expectations at -65.1k after an upwardly-revised 72.6k but the unemployment rate was stable at 3.9%. It is worth noting that one-month doesn’t make a trend and that there has been a shift in the timing of employment growth which the ABS notes. So it is worth looking at trends over several months and these don’t change the view that the labour market remains tight but is gradually easing.
- Summer school holidays started in December and recently people have tended to change jobs during this time and have a break before starting a new one. The December participation rate fell 0.4pp and the number of unemployed declined by 1k.
- 51.7k new jobs were created in Q4 2023 a slowdown from Q3’s 72.5k with the growth driven by part-timers. The number of unemployed was also higher at 51.9k compared with 12.8k but the labour force grew 104k in Q4 compared to 85k in Q3. The labour market couldn’t keep up in the final quarter of 2023 as the working-age population increased another 145k (Q3 +176k).
Employment vs labour force growth y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
- December was the largest drop in full-time (FT) employment since Covid. FT jobs fell 106.6k with part-time (PT) rising 41.4k. Comparing the first half of 2023 with the second half, there was a clear shift to PT new jobs likely signalling less certainty re the outlook. H2 2023 PT jobs rose 222.4k whereas FT fell 98.3k.
- The underemployment rate was unchanged at 6.5%, only 0.1pp higher than June. But hours worked fell 0.5% m/m, the 4th decline in 6 months, with FT down 0.8%m/m but PT up 0.7%. PT is now +6.9% y/y compared with 0.1% for FT, consistent with the view that employers are more cautious.
Full-time vs part-time employment growth y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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