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Trump Return Could Have Ramifications for EV-Gasoline Displacement: Part 1

OIL

The IEA expects electric vehicles (EVs) to displace 6m b/d of gasoline demand by 2030, but a Trump presidency could add uncertainty to the pace of transition.

  • Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has vowed to “end the electric vehicle mandate on day one.”
  • No ‘mandate’ is in place, but existing regulations on pollution limits should push producers towards producing EVs and hybrids.
  • In one scenario modelled by the EPA, EVs and hybrids would constitute 56% and 16% of new car sales respectively by 2032, Bloomberg reported.
  • EV sales are rising in the US but rely heavily on subsidies. Without further government support, such as the $7.5k tax credit Trump would like to scrap, those sales cut hit a ceiling, hampering the transition in the US.
  • Moreover, Trump’s VP pick JD Vance has previously put forward legislation to replace these tax credits with those for US made gasoline and diesel vehicles.

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