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TRY Nearing Multi-Month Highs as Inflation Quickens

TURKEY
  • TRY is trading solidly this morning, with USD/TRY edging further below the 100-dma (8.3820) to touch the lowest levels since mid-June. This exposes key support at the 8.2860 level, a move below which would mark the firmest TRY since early May.
  • Real yields are under pressure since this morning's inflation release, with higher-than-expected CPI and PPI narrowing the gap with the benchmark rate of 19%. With cost pressures inching higher, CBRT's scope for policy easing later in the year is further curtailed.
  • Despite Erdogan's preference for lower rates, Kavcioglu has pledged to keep rates above both expected and realised inflation, giving the bank (very) little wiggle room on policy easing.
  • Food and, to a lesser extent, energy prices were the driver of higher CPI, with food prices (accounting for around 25% of the CPI basket) accelerating by 24.9% from 20% previously. CBRT's year-end forecast remains at just 15%.
  • This raises focus on this Friday's inflation expectations data, which may well tick higher from the previous 12.6%.
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