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Tsys Edge Lower Ahead of Jobless Claims, Biden Tests Covid Positive

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures have edged lower through the session after it was announced Biden has covid and had cancelled some upcoming appearances, we currently trade at session's worst levels with TUU4 is -0-01¾ at 102-18+ while TYU4 is currently -0-05+ at 111-08+
  • Post NY close Former Fed Dallas President Kaplan said he anticipates the Fed may reduce interest rates in September and possibly again in December, but does not expect it to initiate a prolonged rate-cut cycle due to high fiscal deficits and energy prices.
  • The cash treasury curve has bear-flattened today, the 2y yield is 1.9bps higher while the 10y is currently trading 1.5bps higher.
  • Earlier, Biden was confirmed to have covid, this follows comments he made saying he would potentially drop out if diagnosed with a "medical condition". The betting markets have swung again post this news with Kamala jumping 28pts to 50%, while Biden has dropped 31pts to 38% chance of being the Democratic Party nominee.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end slightly cooler vs. late Tuesday levels (*): July'24 at -6.5% w/ cumulative at -1.6bp at 5.313%, Sep'24 cumulative -25.7bp (-26.6bp), Nov'24 cumulative -41.1bp (-42.9bp), Dec'24 -63.6bp (-65.4bp).
  • Focus turns Weekly Claims, 10Y TIPS Sale & TIC Flows.
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