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Tsys Firmer, Inside Session Range After Tsy Lowers Borrow Estimates

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are modestly higher after the bell, holding to a narrow session range, brief bounce after the Tsy borrow estimate decline from $847B to $740B announced.
  • There were no major surprises in Treasury's Marketable Borrowing Estimates (link), as the Treasury Department appears to take a middle-of-the-road approach on cash building ahead of the reinstatement of the debt ceiling at the start of 2025.
  • The TSY quarterly refunding annc is scheduled for Wednesday at 0830ET, along with ADP, PMI and the next FOMC policy annc. Friday sees the July nonfarm payrolls data.
  • Tsy Sep'24 10Y futures trade +5.5 at 111-12 vs. 111-16.5 high -- initial technical resistance followed by 111-17.5 (1.382 of Apr 25-May 16-29 swing). Curves continue to scale back from last week's steepening, 2s10s -2.129 at -21.274.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end look steady to mildly mixed vs. late Friday levels (*) -- Nov and Dec a touch: July'24 at -4% w/ cumulative at -1bp at 5.319%, Sep'24 cumulative -28.2bp (-28.4bp), Nov'24 cumulative -43.9bp (-45.1bp), Dec'24 -67bp (-67.9bp).

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