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Tsys Futures Continue Sell-Off, 2s10s At Early May High

US TSYS
  • Treasuries remained under pressure late Monday, initially following EGBs as French election risk premium is unwound. Futures marched lower since ISM mfg and prices paid miss, while MFG PMI was revised down fractionally in the final June release to leave a still modest increase to 51.6 (cons & prelim 51.7) after 51.3 in May, with other factors at play including carry-over month end positioning since Tsys reversed early support last Friday. Curve flattener unwound, while rate cut pricing cools.
  • TUU4 finished -0-03+ at 102-00, while TYU4 closed -0-26 at 109-05+, we are little changed at the open
  • Post NY close, there was a large 15,988k block trade, likely buyer at 106-05.25
  • A bull cycle in Treasuries remains in play, with the pullback that started Jun 14, appearing to be corrective in nature. Initial support is now 109-03+/109-00+ (July 1 low/ key support), a break here would open a move to 108-27+ (June 3 lows). Resistance sits at 110-16 (Jun 28 high), with a break then targeting 111-01 (bull trigger)
  • Cash treasury curve continues the bear-steepening move with yields flat to 7bps higher. The 2Y +0.2bps at 4.756%, 5Y +4.9bps at 4.426% while the 10Y was +6.5bps at 4.461%
  • The 2s10s is now trading back near April/May highs, +6.096 at -29.850 vs the June 25 lows of -51.252
  • Looking ahead, Powell, Lagarde, Campos Neto Speak in Sintra
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