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Tsys Futures Edge Back Towards Pre-Jobs Data Lows, Curve Steepens

US TSYS
  • Tsys futures were lower on Tuesday and are now trading back towards per-jobs levels as recession fears continue to cool. TUU4 closed - 06⅜ at 103-11⅜, while TYU4 closed - 22 at 113-12+.
  • Treasuries traded sharply higher last week and remain firm. Monday's gains reinforce the current bullish condition. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position too and the recent breach of 111-01, Jun 14 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend.
  • Looking at US 10y techs, initial resistance sits at 115-03+ (Aug 5 highs), while we trade comfortably above initial support of 112-21 (August 2 lows)
  • Cash treasury curve bear-steepened on Tuesday, yields were 5-11bps higher. The 2yr briefly traded back above 4%, before closing +5.5bps at 3.9775%, the 10yr closed +10.4bps at 3.892%.
  • The 2s10s curve ticked higher late in the session on Tuesday, closing +4.859 at -8.729.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end continue to cool, current vs. early Tuesday levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -44.3bp (-45.3bp), Nov'24 cumulative -75.9bp (-80.8bp), Dec'24 -105.8bp (-110.8bp).
  • Today, we have MBA Mortgage Apps and Consumer Credit, Boston Fed Collins speak, but is not expected to speak about policy, US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction.
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