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Tsys Futures Edge Higher, Curve Slightly Steeper

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures have ticked higher today, although we now trade slightly off session's best. TUU4 is + 01¼ at 103-04, while TYU4 is + 03+ at 113-02.
  • Cash treasury curves are bull-steepening today, yields are 1-3bps lower, short-end outperforming although it did underperform overnight. The 2yr is -2.2bps at 4.071%, while the 10yr is -1.1bp at 3.902%.
  • St Louis Fed Pres Musalem is one of the most hawkish members of the FOMC, but his comments overnight suggest he is falling in line with the Fed leadership's view that risks to the inflation vs employment mandates have come into balance - (See link)
  • In June, Japanese investors sold a net $30.1 billion in U.S. Treasuries, marking the largest monthly sell-off since September 2022 and the third consecutive month of reductions
  • Projected rate cuts through year end have moderated vs. Thursday's pre-data levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -33.5bp (-35.2bp), Nov'24 cumulative -62.4bp (-69.6bp), Dec'24 -95.3bp (-104.1bp).
  • Looking ahead we have Housing Start, Building Permits, U. of Mich. Sentiment and Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee to speak
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