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Tsys Futures Edge Lower, Curve Bear-Steepens, Labor Day Holiday

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures spent the Asian session on Friday trading in very tight ranges, we then saw a modest sell-off in the US session as solid activity data weighed again. Core PCE inflation was in line but consumer spending and MNI Chicago PMI surprised to the upside (softer UMichigan consumer inflation expectations helped limit the hawkish follow-through).
  • TUU4 closed -0-02¾ at 103-24¾ while TYZ4 closed the week at -0-10 at 113-18.
  • Cash treasury curves bear-flattened, yields were 2-5bps higher, with the 2yr yield +2.3bp to 3.917%, while the 10yr yield was +4.2bps at 3.903%, the 2s10s was +1.927 to -1.721.
  • Friday data: Personal Income 0.3% vs 0.2% est, Personal Spending 0.05% vs 0.5% est, MNI Chicago PMI 46.1 vs 44.8, Core PCE Price Index 0.2% vs 0.2% est, U. of Mich. Sentiment 67.9 vs 68.1
  • Projected rate cut pricing through year end has gained vs. early Friday levels: Sep'24 cumulative -33.5bp (-33.0bp), Nov'24 cumulative -66.2bp (-65.7bp), Dec'24 -100.1bp (-100.4bp)
  • Today the US market will be closed for Labor Day.

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