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Tsys Futures Edge Lower, Fed Speak & Corp Earnings Later

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are lower today, with the front-end underperforming. The initial selling look to coincide with reports Biden was considering setting aside after more senior Democrats called for him to consider it, betting markets now show Kamala Harris as the likely nominee.
  • TUU4 is -0-01⅞ at 102-16¼, while TYU4 is -0-05+at 111-01+.
  • Tsys flows: Earlier there was a large block seller of 10,000 TYU4, DV01 650k, while in tsys option we have seen decent size buying of TYU4 puts.
  • The cash treasury curve has bear-flattened today with the 2yr +1.4bps at 4.485%, while the 10yr is +0.4bp at 4.206%.
  • The market slightly cooled on rate cut projections on Thursday with a chance of a July'24 cut at 4.5%, September also cooled to 95.5% from 100% a day earlier with the market pricing a total of 64bps of cuts into year-end
  • The data calendar is light on today, there will be Fed speakers including Williams and Bostic while focus will largely be on corporate earnings.
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